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The market continues to grind higher
The fact is that dips are constantly being bought, and those who bought the dips are being rewarded. Keep doing what works.
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Softer inflation on the horizon
Risk assets which are in a relentless uptrend will continue to grind higher in this environment of slowing inflation and rising probabilities of more…
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Payrolls Data = Random Number
The US Federal Reserve is all but certain to cut interest rates by 0.25% next week.
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No reason to fight the trend
The trend is your friend, catch it if you can!
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Jobs market not as resilient
The US inflation data (CPI) later this week is the last major data point
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All eyes on US jobs data
President Trump will most likely rage at the Fed for not cutting interest rates earlier
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Jobs market showing signs of weakness
More Fed officials are becoming vocal about the need to cut interest rates
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Bond markets are nervous
The rise in long term bond yields globally will start to worry investors if it continues.
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The Fed’s Credibility & Independence
This is a risk that we need to be aware of as it could lead to a loss of confidence in the USD and US bonds.
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Benign inflation, & China’s dependence lessen
The dependence on US for AI chips will continue to lessen as the gap narrows between US and China companies.
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August 2025

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